CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. Henri is moving toward the south southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical storm force winds only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

Deep convection has persisted near and southeast of the center of the small tropical cyclone today, and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were a consensus T2.5 (35 kt) at 1800 UTC. Objective estimates from ADT and SATCON also support tropical storm status, therefore the depression has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm with this advisory. Henri (ahn-REE) becomes the eighth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This is the fourth-earliest eighth storm on record with only 2020, 2005, and 1936 having the eighth-named storm form earlier in the season.

Henri is located over warm waters, but is currently being affected by light to moderate northerly shear and dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment. Although these conditions are not overly conducive for strengthening, most of the intensity guidance supports gradual intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly upper-level winds is depicted by the global models over the system, which is likely to halt further strengthening. In fact, given the small size of Henri, it is likely to be more susceptible to the increase in shear, and it could weaken faster than indicated below. The HWRF remains more aggressive, but given the expected increase in shear, that solution still does not seem likely. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model, and is slightly below the IVCN intensity consensus.

The tropical storm is moving south-southwestward or 200/6 kt. Henri is forecast to move west-southwestward during the next 12-24 hours around the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric high over the western Atlantic. After that time, Henri should turn westward as the ridge shifts eastward to the north of the tropical cyclone, and after 72 hours Henri is expected to approach the western extent of the ridge and should turn northward and then north-northeastward. The dynamical model guidance is in somewhat better agreement during the next 48-72 hours, but there remains some spread later in the period as to how sharp of northward turn occurs. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.