FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Henri
LOCATED
145 MI SSE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
65 MPH
PRESSURE
997 MB
MOVING
WSW AT 5 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 800 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021
Henri beginning to move a bit faster to the west-southwest.
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Alerts
hazards
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DISCUSSION

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the southeast and midAtlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week. These swells could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the southeast and midAtlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week. These swells could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 64.5 West. Henri is moving toward the westsouthwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A somewhat faster motion toward the west is forecast by tomorrow, followed by a motion to the westnorthwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, followed by little change in strength through Thursday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 64.5 West. Henri is moving toward the westsouthwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A somewhat faster motion toward the west is forecast by tomorrow, followed by a motion to the westnorthwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, followed by little change in strength through Thursday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

Henri appears to be gaining strength. Satellite images show banding features becoming increasingly curved, especially on the east side of the system, and an eye feature has been occasionally seen in radar images from Bermuda. The upper-level outflow is also well established to the north and east of the center. The center itself is estimated to be located near the western edge of the convection, but it is possible that a new center is forming farther east. The initial intensity is raised to 55 kt following the Dvorak classification from TAFB. The initial wind radii has been expanded outward based on an earlier ASCAT pass.

The tropical storm appears to have slowed down, and the latest initial motion estimate is 255/2 kt. A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster pace during the next two to three days. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the 72-120 h period. There is a fair amount of spread in exactly when and where Henri makes this turn and the GFS and EC ensembles have some members not far offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada. Overall, the guidance has shifted westward again this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly from days 3 to 5.

The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is subsiding, which should allow the storm to gain a little more strength tonight. However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup over Henri on Wednesday and Thursday and that will likely temporarily end the opportunity for strengthening. Although this shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative influences of the shear. By Friday and over the weekend, the shear is expected to lessen again and since the other environmental factors are predicted to remain favorable for the storm, strengthening is shown from days 3-5. This forecast is above the previous one, and lies fairly close to the middle of the guidance envelope.

Henri appears to be gaining strength. Satellite images show banding features becoming increasingly curved, especially on the east side of the system, and an eye feature has been occasionally seen in radar images from Bermuda. The upper-level outflow is also well established to the north and east of the center. The center itself is estimated to be located near the western edge of the convection, but it is possible that a new center is forming farther east. The initial intensity is raised to 55 kt following the Dvorak classification from TAFB. The initial wind radii has been expanded outward based on an earlier ASCAT pass.

The tropical storm appears to have slowed down, and the latest initial motion estimate is 255/2 kt. A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster pace during the next two to three days. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the 72-120 h period. There is a fair amount of spread in exactly when and where Henri makes this turn and the GFS and EC ensembles have some members not far offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada. Overall, the guidance has shifted westward again this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly from days 3 to 5.

The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is subsiding, which should allow the storm to gain a little more strength tonight. However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup over Henri on Wednesday and Thursday and that will likely temporarily end the opportunity for strengthening. Although this shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative influences of the shear. By Friday and over the weekend, the shear is expected to lessen again and since the other environmental factors are predicted to remain favorable for the storm, strengthening is shown from days 3-5. This forecast is above the previous one, and lies fairly close to the middle of the guidance envelope.

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