Hurricane Humberto
LOCATED
450 MI WSW OF BERMUDA
WINDS
105 MPH
PRESSURE
960 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 , 2019
HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE LARGE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO BERMUDA, A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERMUDA
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DISCUSSION

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Storm surge and wave setup could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Storm surge and wave setup could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 72.3 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or on Wednesday.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 72.3 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or on Wednesday.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

Humberto's satellite appearance has improved somewhat since the previous advisory, with the eye clearing out and becoming more distinct. This has resulted in satellite subjective intensity estimates increasing to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, with objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS increasing to T5.9/112 kt. However, during the past 36 h or so, the satellite estimates have been running higher than the actual surface winds by about 10-15 percent. A 1425Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 72 kt in the southeastern eyewall, which is significant given that the scatterometer is well undersampling the actual peak winds due to the 25-km footprint of the instrument. The intensity has been increased to 90 kt based on the clearing and warming of the eye and allowing for some overestimation by the satellite agencies. The scatterometer wind data also showed that Humberto's wind field has expanded more since the earlier recon wind data, thus some additional adjustments were made to all of the wind radii in this advisory.

Humberto continues to move east-northeastward or 075/10 kt. The large hurricane remains on track, and the latest NHC model guidance remains tightly packed around the previous advisory track. Thus, no significant changes were made to the previous forecast track through 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, however, the models are now in better agreement on Humberto accelerating and moving faster toward the northeast through 96 hours as an extratropical cyclone, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast on day 5. The official forecast track is based on a blend of the consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, and shows the center of Humberto passing just to the northwest and north of Bermuda between 24-36 hours or late Wednesday night.

The latest SHIPS intensity guidance shows near 30 kt of deep-layer vertical shear allegedly affecting Humberto, which obviously is a significant overestimate based on the presence of a well-defined eye and smooth CDO feature in visible satellite imagery. Given the likely overestimation of the shear values, Humberto is expected to strengthen to major hurricane status in the next 24 h. Thereafter, Humberto is forecast to steadily weaken due to cold upwelling as the hurricane moves over cooler waters, and into an environment consisting of very strong shear exceeding 40-50 kt and more stable, drier air. However, the usual rate of weakening due to the strong shear conditions is expected to be tempered by the increasing baroclinic forcing in the right-rear entrance region of a strong jetstream wind maximum. The NHC intensity closely follows a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

Humberto's satellite appearance has improved somewhat since the previous advisory, with the eye clearing out and becoming more distinct. This has resulted in satellite subjective intensity estimates increasing to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, with objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS increasing to T5.9/112 kt. However, during the past 36 h or so, the satellite estimates have been running higher than the actual surface winds by about 10-15 percent. A 1425Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 72 kt in the southeastern eyewall, which is significant given that the scatterometer is well undersampling the actual peak winds due to the 25-km footprint of the instrument. The intensity has been increased to 90 kt based on the clearing and warming of the eye and allowing for some overestimation by the satellite agencies. The scatterometer wind data also showed that Humberto's wind field has expanded more since the earlier recon wind data, thus some additional adjustments were made to all of the wind radii in this advisory.

Humberto continues to move east-northeastward or 075/10 kt. The large hurricane remains on track, and the latest NHC model guidance remains tightly packed around the previous advisory track. Thus, no significant changes were made to the previous forecast track through 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, however, the models are now in better agreement on Humberto accelerating and moving faster toward the northeast through 96 hours as an extratropical cyclone, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast on day 5. The official forecast track is based on a blend of the consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, and shows the center of Humberto passing just to the northwest and north of Bermuda between 24-36 hours or late Wednesday night.

The latest SHIPS intensity guidance shows near 30 kt of deep-layer vertical shear allegedly affecting Humberto, which obviously is a significant overestimate based on the presence of a well-defined eye and smooth CDO feature in visible satellite imagery. Given the likely overestimation of the shear values, Humberto is expected to strengthen to major hurricane status in the next 24 h. Thereafter, Humberto is forecast to steadily weaken due to cold upwelling as the hurricane moves over cooler waters, and into an environment consisting of very strong shear exceeding 40-50 kt and more stable, drier air. However, the usual rate of weakening due to the strong shear conditions is expected to be tempered by the increasing baroclinic forcing in the right-rear entrance region of a strong jetstream wind maximum. The NHC intensity closely follows a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

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