1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).

Humberto has an impressive presentation on satellite images, with a large 30-40 n mi diameter eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the hurricane found SFMR-observed surface winds of 98 kt and peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 111 kt. Based on these observations, the current intensity was set at 100 kt, which made the system a major hurricane. Some fluctuations in strength due to a potential eyewall replacement are possible during the next 24 hours or so, but strong southwesterly shear should result in a weakening trend to commence on Thursday. In 72 hours, the global models show the system merging with a frontal zone so the NHC forecast calls for extratropical transition by that time. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the motion continues to be east-northeastward or 075/10 kt. Humberto is likely to turn toward the northeast and north-northeast at a faster forward speed in 24-36 hours as it interacts with a strong mid-level trough at mid-latitudes to its north and northeast. Later in the forecast period, the track guidance indicates that Humberto will turn back toward the east-northeast as it moves in tandem with the mid-latitude trough over the north Atlantic. The official forecast is in close agreement with the simple and corrected consensus models, TVCA and HCCA.