1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight and Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected to begin later today. Residents there should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda tonight and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to reach tropical-storm strength later this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda today. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located by satellite near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 69.6 West. Humberto has increased its forward speed and is moving toward the east- northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A NOAA buoy reported a wind gust to 89 mph (144 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches) as the eye of Humberto was approaching.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).

Humberto's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding with a large ragged eye and surrounded by deep convection. The eye of the hurricane is very near NOAA Buoy 41048 and most likely will passing over it by the time this advisory is being released. The pressure from the buoy has been dropping fast and is now at 961 mb and the sustained winds have reached 58 kt with gusts to 78 kt. Based on satellite appearance and continuity, the initial intensity is kept at 100 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft will check the cyclone in a few hours.

Some fluctuations in strength due to a potential eyewall replacement are possible during the next 12 to 24 hours or so. After that time very strong southwesterly wind shear should impact the hurricane resulting in weakening. In 72 hours or earlier, the global models show the system merging with a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast calls for extratropical transition by that time. The official intensity forecast follows the corrected consensus HCCA and is not very different from the previous one.

Humberto is accelerating, and satellite fixes yield an initial motion toward the east-northeast or 065 degrees at 14 kt. Humberto is located at the base of a strong mid-to upper-level trough, and the hurricane will likely interact with this amplifying trough. This should force Humberto to turn toward the northeast and north- northeast at a faster forward speed in 24-36 hours. Later in the forecast period, the track guidance indicates that Humberto will turn back toward the east-northeast while becoming embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.