1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected to continue on Bermuda through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force winds expected during the next several hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Humberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane-force wind gusts are occurring on Bermuda and sustained hurricane force winds will occur tonight into early Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds will persist on Bermuda into late Thursday morning.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches expected. Rainfall amounts up to 3 inches have already been reported across portions of the island.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda today and tonight. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Wave heights exceeding 30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Humberto was located by satellite and Bermuda weather radar data near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 66.3 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to Bermuda. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a expected to remain a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). An amateur radio operator at Ports Island near the southern end of Bermuda reported a sustained wind of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a gust to 104 mph (167 km/h) during the past hour. An amateur radio operator in Somerset Village recently reported a sustained wind of 70 mph (113 km/h) and a gust to 89 mph (143 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been disrupted due to a lightning strike.

Humberto is taking on more of a hybrid-extratropical structure based on most of the rain shield having been displaced to the left or poleward side of the circulation now as seen in Bermuda weather radar data, and also in conventional and passive microwave satellite imagery. Sustained hurricane-force winds and gusts have been measured by amateur radio operators across the island, with a peak gust to 104 mph having been reported thus far at Ports Island, Bermuda. The initial intensity of 105 kt on the previous advisory has been maintained since little overall change in the structure has occurred since the last aircraft reconnaissance mission 6 hours ago.

The initial motion estimate is 060/17 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Humberto has basically remained on track during the past 24 hours. The hurricane is expected to continue accelerating toward the east-northeast tonight and Thursday morning, with the center expected to pass about 80 nmi northwest of Bermuda early this evening. A turn toward the northeast and north-northeast is forecast to occur by early Thursday afternoon, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast by 48 hours, with the latter motion continuing through 96 hours. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE consensus track models.

Humberto is now fully embedded within an anticyclonically curved right-rear jet entrance region. As a result, some fluctuations in strength could occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 50 kt, along with cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, should combine to induce steady weakening. By 48 hours, the global models continue to forecast Humberto to merge with a frontal system, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition around that time. The official intensity forecast follows an average of the global models' intensity forecasts due to Humberto's hybrid nature, which is not being captured properly by the tropical-cyclone-based consensus intensity models.