1. Tropical-storm conditions on Bermuda should subside during the next several hours.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing, could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Bermuda Weather Service has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case during the next several hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Humberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical-storm-force winds will persist on Bermuda into late Thursday morning.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will continue along the coast of Bermuda through Thursday, and these could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Storm surge along the coast of Bermuda should subside tonight and Thursday.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 63.9 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a north-northeastward motion at a slower forward speed Thursday night and Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane should start to weaken later tonight, and it is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). Several stations on Bermuda are reporting sustained winds of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) with higher gusts.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been restored. However, the weather radar on Bermuda is currently down.

The center of Humberto made its closest approach to Bermuda a few hours ago, with many weather stations on the island reporting sustained hurricane force winds and gusts near or over 100 kt. Since that time, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has arrived at the storm and reported little change in strength despite a decaying appearance in satellite imagery. The SFMR surface wind estimates were in the 100-105 kt range to the west of the center, and the central pressure was near 952 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 105 kt.

The decay in the satellite signature is due to Humberto starting to undergo extratropical transition, a process that the global models forecast to be complete by 36 h. Those models forecast that the cyclone should steadily weaken during and after the transition until it is absorbed by another low pressure system between 96-120 h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast, with a slightly faster decrease in intensity during the first 48 h.

The initial motion is now 055/20. Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward as it becomes extratropical, followed by a turn back toward the east-northeastward as the extratropical low is steered by the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.