1. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing, could cause coastal flooding today along the coast of Bermuda.

2. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will continue along the coast of Bermuda through today, and these could continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Storm surge along the coast of Bermuda should subside today.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 62.2 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a north- northeastward motion at a slower forward speed Thursday night and Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move away from Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane should start to weaken today, and it is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405 miles (650 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

Flight-level and surface wind observations reported by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft exiting Humberto a couple of hours ago indicated that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 kt. However, weakening is expected to commence soon.

Humberto's extratropical transition continues as a high amplitude PV tongue, noted in the GOES-16 water vapor imagery, and associated dry air, digs into the backside of the cyclone. The large-scale models, as well as the FSU Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast, indicate that the process will be completed in less than 36 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected until the extratropical low is absorbed by another larger low pressure system, moving out of Atlantic Canada, by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast and is based on a blend of the global models beyond the 36 hour period.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt. Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward as the cyclone completes its extratropical transition, followed by a turn back toward the east-northeast within the strong deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is nudged a little to the left of the previous advisory between the 36 and 72 hour periods, and is close to the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model.