1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should monitor the progress of this system.

WHAT'S NEW:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the following islands in the northwestern Bahamas the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday over the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida north of West Palm Beach. Isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches are possible in the northwest and central Bahamas.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwest Bahamas.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. The system is expected to move toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue during the next 2 days. On this track, the system is anticipated to move across the northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over the east coast of central Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after consultation with the meteorological service of that country.

The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast. With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly uncertain, more than usual I would say.