1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm and bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Depending on the track of the system, heavy rainfall could reach eastern North Carolina next week.

4. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Jupiter Inlet to FlaglerVolusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: [TOP] The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches. The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 74.5 West. The system is barely moving, but is expected to resume a slow motion toward the northwest and north-northwest later today. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or near the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Saturday.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Preliminary data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the disturbance has not developed a well-defined center yet and continues to be characterized by an elongated SW to NE trough of low pressure. Satellite images however, suggest that the system could be consolidating a little bit farther to the east within the area of deep convection. The reconnaissance plane will also check this region soon. In this advisory, the initial position is a point near the middle of of the trough, but not quite as far east as the convective area. The initial intensity remains 25 kt.

The disturbance is embedded within a moderate shear environment, but this parameter is not expected to be strong enough to halt development. The NHC forecast still calls for this system to become a tropical cyclone later today or Saturday. Global models develop the system and guidance suggests that the cyclone could even reach hurricane intensity by the end of the forecast period. By then, the system is expected to be over the Atlantic well southeast of the coast of the Carolinas.

Due to a lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is highly uncertain. It appears that there has been little motion during the past few hours. A weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to develop and this pattern should steer the system slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3 days, an eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system to recurve away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The guidance has shifted a little to east this morning and consequently the NHC track forecast was adjusted in that direction. However, the official forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope. If the disturbance develops a little more to the east, the track forecast will probably adjusted to the right later today.