1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwestern Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas today. These winds should subside later today or tonight.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Humberto is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals of 6 inches. Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...up to 1 inch.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Humberto is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 76.7 West. Humberto has been nearly stationary during the past few hours, but the cyclone should resume a slow motion toward the northwest and north later today. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto should gradually move away from the northwestern Bahamas later today or tonight, and then will move well offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night well east of the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure from a reconnaissance plane was 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

The center of Humberto is better defined today, but due to shear, it is still located south of the main area of deep convection. Satellite images indicate that a cyclonically-curved convective band is also developing southeast of the center. Recent reports from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the winds have increased, and the maximum intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. These strong winds are confined to the north and east of the center of the cyclone.

The current unfavorable shear over Humberto is forecast to weaken, and since the cyclone is expected to move over warm waters, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east of the Florida east coast and well away from the Bahamas. The intensity forecast is consistent with the solutions of the consensus model and the corrected consensus HCCA. In addition, all global models intensify Humberto and show an increase in the size of the storm.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has barely moved during the past few hours. Humberto is being trapped by a ridge to the north, but this feature is forecast to weaken. The expected flow pattern should steer the cyclone very slowly toward the northwest and north during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and most likely, Humberto will sharply recurve northeastward away from the United States with no significant increase in forward speed. Only by the end of the forecast period, Humberto should begin to accelerate. The NHC forecast is very consistent with the track guidance which clearly depict the slow motion of the system and the sharp turn to the right in 2 or 3 days.