FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Ida
LOCATED
5 MI E OF THE CENTER OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
WINDS
75 MPH
PRESSURE
987 MB
MOVING
NW AT 15 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021
Ida makes landfall as a hurricane on the isle of youth.
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected later today and tonight in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

2. The risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation is increasing along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday, and the risk of hurricane-force winds continues to increase, especially along portions of the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans. Potentially devastating wind damage could occur where the core of Ida moves onshore.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth Friday, where a dangerous storm surge is also possible in areas of onshore flow. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane-force winds beginning Sunday along the portions of the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, including metropolitan New Orleans, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday along the central Gulf coast resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected to continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected later today and tonight in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

2. The risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation is increasing along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday, and the risk of hurricane-force winds continues to increase, especially along portions of the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans. Potentially devastating wind damage could occur where the core of Ida moves onshore.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth Friday, where a dangerous storm surge is also possible in areas of onshore flow. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane-force winds beginning Sunday along the portions of the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, including metropolitan New Orleans, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday along the central Gulf coast resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected to continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border
- Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border
- Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...711 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...47 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...47 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...35 ft Lake Pontchartrain...46 ft Lake Maurepas...35 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...24 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and are expected to spread over portions of western Cuba in the hurricane warning area by later this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are already beginning to reach portions of western Cuba and will continue through early Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce lifethreatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...711 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...47 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...47 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...35 ft Lake Pontchartrain...46 ft Lake Maurepas...35 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...24 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and are expected to spread over portions of western Cuba in the hurricane warning area by later this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are already beginning to reach portions of western Cuba and will continue through early Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce lifethreatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located by Cuban radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass over the Isle of Youth during the next hour or so, move over western Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Sunday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast before the center moves over western Cuba later today. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has recently been observed on Cayo Largo, Cuba.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located by Cuban radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass over the Isle of Youth during the next hour or so, move over western Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Sunday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast before the center moves over western Cuba later today. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has recently been observed on Cayo Largo, Cuba.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

Radar imagery from Grand Cayman and Cuba as well as satellite data continue to show an improvement in Ida's overall structure this morning, with an increase in banding, the development of a small central dense overcast, and more recently an improved inner-core feature. Both the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported that the pressure has fallen to around 996 mb, and the Air Force plane has measured flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial intensity of 55 kt.

Although there is still some southwesterly shear over Ida, the outflow has begun to expand over the northeastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The upper-level trough near the Yucatan peninsula that has been imparting the shear over Ida is forecast to weaken and move westward during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should result in a more favorable upper-level wind pattern. This, in combination with warm sea surface temperatures and a moist environment along the forecast track of the storm are expected to result in steady to rapid strengthening. Ida is now foreast to become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba and once it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico a period of rapid strengthening is likely to begin, with the NHC intensity forecast explicitly calling for rapid intensification to major hurricane strength between 24 and 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is on the higher side of the intensity guidance but not quite as high as the slightly more aggressive CTCI, HWRF, and HCCA models. In addition to the increase in strength, the dynamical model guidance indicates that Ida's wind field will grow larger as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and this is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast. In summary, there is a higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will impact a large portion of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.

Ida is moving northwestward or 320/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to move westward and this should keep Ida on a general northwestward heading during the next 48-60 hours. This track will bring the storm across western Cuba later today, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night, to the coast of Louisiana by late Sunday. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement with very little cross-track spread during the first 60 hours or so of the forecast period. After that time, Ida is forecast to reach the western portion of the ridge, which is expected to cause the storm to slow down and turn northward and then northeastward over the southeastern United States. The NHC track forecast is near or just east of the various consensus aids, in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. Although the small spread in the guidance through landfall increases the overall confidence in the track forecast, users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

Corrected Key Message Number 4

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Ida this evening and found maximum flight-level winds of 47 kt at 2500 ft. This data along with numerous unflagged 35-kt SFMR winds supported raising the intensity to 35 kt earlier this evening. Since the aircraft departed Ida, there has been little change in the storm's structure, so the initial intensity was held at 35 kt. Ida is an asymmetric tropical storm with most of the deep convection and stronger winds confined to the eastern half of the circulation. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Ida Friday morning.

The storm has been wobbling around, but smoothing through the recent erratic motion yields an initial motion estimate of 320/10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward on Friday and over the weekend. This feature should keep Ida moving on a general northwestward track for the next 2 or 3 days, taking the core of the system over western Cuba Friday afternoon or evening and then across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Although some model timing differences remain, they are in fairly good agreement that Ida will make landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members basically span a similar region and are most concentrated across the state of Louisiana. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as impacts will extend far from the center and the average 72-hour track error is around 120 miles.

There is some southwesterly vertical wind shear affecting Ida at the moment, which is the likely part of the reason the cloud pattern and wind field are asymmetric. However, the global model show the upper-level pattern becoming quite favorable late Friday and through the weekend. These more conducive winds aloft combined with very warm SSTs and abundant moisture is likely to result in steady or rapid intensification until Ida makes landfall in the U.S. The intensity guidance unanimously show Ida becoming a hurricane, but there is notable spread in how strong the system will become. Given the expected favorable environmental conditions for the storm, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance, in best agreement with the regional hurricane models. It is also worth noting that even though the global models are not particularly accurate in predicting tropical cyclone winds, the GFS and ECMWF show the minimum pressure falling more than 35 mb from the current conditions. Based on all of this information, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will be approaching the Gulf coast late this weekend.

Cuban radar data and reports from an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that Ida's inner core structure continued to improve after the release of the previous advisory package. An eye became apparent in radar imagery before the center reached the Isle of Youth, and the final fix from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a closed 24-n-mi wide eye. The aircraft measured winds to support hurricane intensity shortly before 1800 UTC, and during the final northeast eyewall pass, and flight-level wind data support increasing the intensity to 70 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory.

The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday. Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through a very favorable oceanic and atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance now brings Ida to category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours, which is supported by several of the dynamical models, the LGEM model, and high probabilities of rapid intensification indicated by the SHIPS and DTOPS RI guidance. The NHC forecast is near the IVCN multi-model consensus aid, but is lower than HCCA and LGEM. It should be noted that some fluctuations in intensity are possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. In addition to the expected increase in strength, the dynamical model guidance again calls for Ida's wind field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.

Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer term motion continues to be northwestward or 320/13 kt. The steering currents remain well-established as a strong deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic should continue to steer Ida northwestward across the Gulf this weekend. Ida will approach the western portion of the ridge after landfall, and this should result in a slower northward motion by day 3. After that time, a short-wave trough over the central United States is expected to cause the system to turn northeastward. The track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement through landfall along the northern Gulf coast, and there is higher-than-normal confidence in that portion of the track forecast. However, users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

Radar imagery from Grand Cayman and Cuba as well as satellite data continue to show an improvement in Ida's overall structure this morning, with an increase in banding, the development of a small central dense overcast, and more recently an improved inner-core feature. Both the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported that the pressure has fallen to around 996 mb, and the Air Force plane has measured flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial intensity of 55 kt.

Although there is still some southwesterly shear over Ida, the outflow has begun to expand over the northeastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The upper-level trough near the Yucatan peninsula that has been imparting the shear over Ida is forecast to weaken and move westward during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should result in a more favorable upper-level wind pattern. This, in combination with warm sea surface temperatures and a moist environment along the forecast track of the storm are expected to result in steady to rapid strengthening. Ida is now foreast to become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba and once it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico a period of rapid strengthening is likely to begin, with the NHC intensity forecast explicitly calling for rapid intensification to major hurricane strength between 24 and 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is on the higher side of the intensity guidance but not quite as high as the slightly more aggressive CTCI, HWRF, and HCCA models. In addition to the increase in strength, the dynamical model guidance indicates that Ida's wind field will grow larger as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and this is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast. In summary, there is a higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will impact a large portion of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.

Ida is moving northwestward or 320/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to move westward and this should keep Ida on a general northwestward heading during the next 48-60 hours. This track will bring the storm across western Cuba later today, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night, to the coast of Louisiana by late Sunday. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement with very little cross-track spread during the first 60 hours or so of the forecast period. After that time, Ida is forecast to reach the western portion of the ridge, which is expected to cause the storm to slow down and turn northward and then northeastward over the southeastern United States. The NHC track forecast is near or just east of the various consensus aids, in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. Although the small spread in the guidance through landfall increases the overall confidence in the track forecast, users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

Corrected Key Message Number 4

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Ida this evening and found maximum flight-level winds of 47 kt at 2500 ft. This data along with numerous unflagged 35-kt SFMR winds supported raising the intensity to 35 kt earlier this evening. Since the aircraft departed Ida, there has been little change in the storm's structure, so the initial intensity was held at 35 kt. Ida is an asymmetric tropical storm with most of the deep convection and stronger winds confined to the eastern half of the circulation. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Ida Friday morning.

The storm has been wobbling around, but smoothing through the recent erratic motion yields an initial motion estimate of 320/10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward on Friday and over the weekend. This feature should keep Ida moving on a general northwestward track for the next 2 or 3 days, taking the core of the system over western Cuba Friday afternoon or evening and then across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Although some model timing differences remain, they are in fairly good agreement that Ida will make landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members basically span a similar region and are most concentrated across the state of Louisiana. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as impacts will extend far from the center and the average 72-hour track error is around 120 miles.

There is some southwesterly vertical wind shear affecting Ida at the moment, which is the likely part of the reason the cloud pattern and wind field are asymmetric. However, the global model show the upper-level pattern becoming quite favorable late Friday and through the weekend. These more conducive winds aloft combined with very warm SSTs and abundant moisture is likely to result in steady or rapid intensification until Ida makes landfall in the U.S. The intensity guidance unanimously show Ida becoming a hurricane, but there is notable spread in how strong the system will become. Given the expected favorable environmental conditions for the storm, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance, in best agreement with the regional hurricane models. It is also worth noting that even though the global models are not particularly accurate in predicting tropical cyclone winds, the GFS and ECMWF show the minimum pressure falling more than 35 mb from the current conditions. Based on all of this information, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will be approaching the Gulf coast late this weekend.

Cuban radar data and reports from an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that Ida's inner core structure continued to improve after the release of the previous advisory package. An eye became apparent in radar imagery before the center reached the Isle of Youth, and the final fix from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a closed 24-n-mi wide eye. The aircraft measured winds to support hurricane intensity shortly before 1800 UTC, and during the final northeast eyewall pass, and flight-level wind data support increasing the intensity to 70 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory.

The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday. Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, it will be moving through a very favorable oceanic and atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. These conditions are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact, with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance now brings Ida to category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours, which is supported by several of the dynamical models, the LGEM model, and high probabilities of rapid intensification indicated by the SHIPS and DTOPS RI guidance. The NHC forecast is near the IVCN multi-model consensus aid, but is lower than HCCA and LGEM. It should be noted that some fluctuations in intensity are possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. In addition to the expected increase in strength, the dynamical model guidance again calls for Ida's wind field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.

Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer term motion continues to be northwestward or 320/13 kt. The steering currents remain well-established as a strong deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic should continue to steer Ida northwestward across the Gulf this weekend. Ida will approach the western portion of the ridge after landfall, and this should result in a slower northward motion by day 3. After that time, a short-wave trough over the central United States is expected to cause the system to turn northeastward. The track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement through landfall along the northern Gulf coast, and there is higher-than-normal confidence in that portion of the track forecast. However, users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

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