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FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Jerry
LOCATED
395 MI E OF LEEWARD ISLANDS
WINDS
90 MPH
PRESSURE
979 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 17 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 , 2019
JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Barbuda
- Anguilla
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin
- St. Barthelemy
- Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 2436 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Barbuda
- Anguilla
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin
- St. Barthelemy
- Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 2436 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so before weakening is anticipated by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so before weakening is anticipated by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours. Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt, suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating that the earlier intensification has probably continued. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better estimate.

The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning. The shear increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone. Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing into Saturday. Some re-strengthening is possible early next week as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude trough interaction. The new NHC wind speed prediction has not changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect the above possibility.

The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday, north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north- northeastward by Monday/Tuesday. The guidance has moved to the northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge. The NHC forecast is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on the western side of the guidance envelope.

Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours. Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt, suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating that the earlier intensification has probably continued. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better estimate.

The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning. The shear increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone. Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing into Saturday. Some re-strengthening is possible early next week as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude trough interaction. The new NHC wind speed prediction has not changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect the above possibility.

The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday, north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north- northeastward by Monday/Tuesday. The guidance has moved to the northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge. The NHC forecast is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on the western side of the guidance envelope.

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