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FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Jerry
LOCATED
385
WINDS
105 MPH
PRESSURE
976 MB
MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 , 2019
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER,
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin
- St. Barthelemy
- Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 2436 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin
- St. Barthelemy
- Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 2436 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 57.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin by late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 57.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin by late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigating Jerry this evening found that the hurricane has strengthened. Based on the 700 mb flight-level winds from the aircraft, the current intensity is estimated to be about 90 kt. It should be noted that this is substantially higher than the intensity estimates provided from satellite data, and underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance of tropical cyclones. An expected increase in vertical shear in a day or so is expected to cause a weakening trend to commence in 12 to 24 hours, however, Jerry should remain a hurricane throughout the forecast period. This NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one mainly due to the higher initial wind speed, and is near or a little above the model consensus.

Jerry remains on track and continues to move west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane should continue this general motion with some slowing of forward speed as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Jerry is likely to turn to the northwest, then north-northwest, and north as it moves through a weakness in the ridge. The track prediction models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is quite close to the previous one. This is also very similar to the NOAA corrected consensus model, or HCCA, track.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigating Jerry this evening found that the hurricane has strengthened. Based on the 700 mb flight-level winds from the aircraft, the current intensity is estimated to be about 90 kt. It should be noted that this is substantially higher than the intensity estimates provided from satellite data, and underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance of tropical cyclones. An expected increase in vertical shear in a day or so is expected to cause a weakening trend to commence in 12 to 24 hours, however, Jerry should remain a hurricane throughout the forecast period. This NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one mainly due to the higher initial wind speed, and is near or a little above the model consensus.

Jerry remains on track and continues to move west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane should continue this general motion with some slowing of forward speed as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Jerry is likely to turn to the northwest, then north-northwest, and north as it moves through a weakness in the ridge. The track prediction models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is quite close to the previous one. This is also very similar to the NOAA corrected consensus model, or HCCA, track.

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