1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there today.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin
- St. Barthelemy
- Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas later today.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 58.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin later today, but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).

Jerry appears to have stopped strengthening for now. The last reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that the minimum pressure had risen slightly, and the satellite appearance has become a little more ragged during the past several hours. Radar images sent from the aircraft showed a well-defined inner core, but there are no hints of an eye in geostationary satellite images. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. Both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Jerry later today, and that data should provide a better assessment of its intensity and structure.

Jerry continues to move west-northwestward at a relatively quick pace of 14 kt. This motion is expected to continue for about another 24 hours as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The ridge is expected to weaken and slide eastward late this weekend in response to an eastward-moving trough over the north Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause Jerry to slow down and gradually turn to the northwest and then the north late this weekend and early next week. A faster north- northeastward motion is anticipated toward the end of the forecast period as another trough approaches the system. The models remain in very good agreement on the hurricane passing well to the north of the northern Leeward Island and Puerto Rico late today and Saturday and possibly moving near Bermuda in a little more than 4 days. The only notable change this cycle is a slower northward motion from days 3 to 5 to be in better agreement with the latest models.

The intensity forecast is a bit more challenging. The global models show a relatively favorable upper-level wind pattern over Jerry during the next couple of days, but there is also a significant amount of dry air around the cyclone. Although the shear could increase early next week, some of the models show Jerry deepening, likely due to baroclinic effects due to the nearby trough. There is a very large spread in the intensity guidance ranging from SHIPS and LGEM showing little change in strength to pronounced weakening shown by HMON during the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is between those extremes and lies a little above the consensus aids.