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Hurricane Jerry
LOCATED
140 MI...225 KM N OF BARBUDA ABOUT 120
WINDS
80 MPH
PRESSURE
991 MB
MOVING
WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 , 2019
JERRY STILL POSES A FLOODING RISK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS,
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there tonight.

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there tonight.

WHAT'S NEW:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin
- St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WHAT'S NEW:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin
- St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas this evening.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas this evening.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn northward on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could re-strengthen early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn northward on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could re-strengthen early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

Satellite images indicate that deep convection has re-developed near and northeast of the center, with a new rainband also present in the southwest quadrant. Overall the degradation in satellite seen this morning has stopped, and that trend basically matches the last aircraft data from several hours ago. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt on this advisory, and another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane tonight.

Jerry has been moving a little faster today, west-northwestward at 16 kt, perhaps due to the system becoming a little shallower and feeling the faster low-level flow. There are no significant track changes to the NHC forecast this afternoon. The hurricane's motion should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered around the western flank of a weakening subtropical ridge. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough will likely turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but how quickly that occurs is an open question. The guidance spread has only increased this afternoon, although the model consensus hasn't changed much, so the NHC forecast will hold the course on this advisory.

Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next day or so, and further weakening is expected. While the shear might not change much by late this weekend, a combination of very warm water and a more moist mid-level environment could sustain the cyclone and even allow some strengthening afterward. The long-range intensity forecast depends on the mid-latitude trough and whether it is a trough that tends to shear the cyclone, or whether it gives Jerry a baroclinic kick to increase the winds. I'm hesitant to change anything at this point given the huge track spread, so the latest intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near or slightly above the model consensus.

Satellite images indicate that deep convection has re-developed near and northeast of the center, with a new rainband also present in the southwest quadrant. Overall the degradation in satellite seen this morning has stopped, and that trend basically matches the last aircraft data from several hours ago. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt on this advisory, and another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane tonight.

Jerry has been moving a little faster today, west-northwestward at 16 kt, perhaps due to the system becoming a little shallower and feeling the faster low-level flow. There are no significant track changes to the NHC forecast this afternoon. The hurricane's motion should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered around the western flank of a weakening subtropical ridge. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough will likely turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but how quickly that occurs is an open question. The guidance spread has only increased this afternoon, although the model consensus hasn't changed much, so the NHC forecast will hold the course on this advisory.

Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next day or so, and further weakening is expected. While the shear might not change much by late this weekend, a combination of very warm water and a more moist mid-level environment could sustain the cyclone and even allow some strengthening afterward. The long-range intensity forecast depends on the mid-latitude trough and whether it is a trough that tends to shear the cyclone, or whether it gives Jerry a baroclinic kick to increase the winds. I'm hesitant to change anything at this point given the huge track spread, so the latest intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near or slightly above the model consensus.

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