1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 67.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

Jerry has lacked organized deep convection since around 1500 UTC yesterday. It is therefore now designated as a post-tropical cyclone. However, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Bermuda, and advisories will continue to be issued on Jerry until it no longer poses any threat to the island.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continued to fly through Jerry after the last advisory. The plane reported that Jerry's wind field has become quite asymmetric, with no tropical-storm-force winds in the western half of the cyclone. That said, on its last pass through the southeast quadrant of the cyclone the plane reported max flight level winds of 55 kt at 925 mb and believable SFMR winds of 40 kt. The intensity of Jerry is therefore maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. With no deep convection to sustain it, the cyclone should gradually spin down during the next few days. The dynamical models indicate that Jerry will dissipate in about 4 days and the NHC forecast does as well.

A mid-latitude trough to the north has caused Jerry to turn northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/6 kt. The models are in good agreement that the post-tropical low will continue generally northeastward today and tomorrow, steered by low-level southwesterly flow. On this track, the cyclone will pass very near Bermuda later today. The models are in excellent agreement on the track of Jerry, and only small adjustments were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

Jerry remains devoid of deep convection in an environment of dry mid-level air and strong westerly shear. Data from a new scatterometer pass indicate that the maximum winds are no more than 35 kt, and even that value could be generous. The system should remain in a hostile environment for the next few days, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that no significant deep convection will redevelop within it. Therefore the official intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to gradually spin down over the next 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is just slightly below the model consensus.

The cyclone has turned toward the east-northeast with some increase in forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is 060/8 kt. Jerry should continue to move east-northeastward, to the south of the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies, for the next day or two. Later in the forecast period, the weak cyclone is expected to turn east-southeastward along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical high pressure area, and dissipate. The official track forecast continues to follow the NOAA corrected consensus guidance rather closely.