FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Depression Ten
LOCATED
1110 MI EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES
WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1007 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 10 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 , 2019
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

None

None

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 45.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 45.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous official foreast was needed.

Convection associated with Tropical Depression Ten has increased and become better organized since the last advisory, and various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 35-40 kt range. However, just-received ASCAT-C data indicates that, despite this increase in organization, the surface winds have not yet reached 35 kt. Based on this, the cyclone remains a 30 kt depression for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 285/9. The cyclone is to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer the system generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 3-4 days. Near the end of the forecast period, the cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge and turn more northwestward. The track guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, with the GFS near the northern edge of the guidance and the HWRF remaining near the southern edge. The new forecast track lies a little to the south of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.

The depression should be in an environment of light shear and over warm water for the next 24-36 h, which should allow steady strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast to increase after 36 h to the point where it may at least slow development, and this is reflected in slight changes from the previous forecast. The new intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus through 48 h, and then is above the consensus from 72-120 h. It should be noted that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous official foreast was needed.

Convection associated with Tropical Depression Ten has increased and become better organized since the last advisory, and various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 35-40 kt range. However, just-received ASCAT-C data indicates that, despite this increase in organization, the surface winds have not yet reached 35 kt. Based on this, the cyclone remains a 30 kt depression for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 285/9. The cyclone is to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer the system generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 3-4 days. Near the end of the forecast period, the cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge and turn more northwestward. The track guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, with the GFS near the northern edge of the guidance and the HWRF remaining near the southern edge. The new forecast track lies a little to the south of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.

The depression should be in an environment of light shear and over warm water for the next 24-36 h, which should allow steady strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast to increase after 36 h to the point where it may at least slow development, and this is reflected in slight changes from the previous forecast. The new intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus through 48 h, and then is above the consensus from 72-120 h. It should be noted that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram