1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on the island but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on the island but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 65.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and then accelerate northeastward early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north Puerto Rico today and pass well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds of Jerry remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the hurricane hunter plane is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 65.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and then accelerate northeastward early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north Puerto Rico today and pass well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds of Jerry remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the hurricane hunter plane is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane has investigated Jerry this morning and found that the tropical storm has become quite disorganized. The highest flight level winds reported by the plane at the 700 mb level were 59 kt, which supports holding the intensity at 55 kt. The highest reliable SFMR winds were lower and the minimum pressure estimated from the plane data was 999 mb, so its possible that Jerry's winds are actually a little lower.
Jerry is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of 315/12 kt. The track guidance is still in very good agreement on the forecast track for the tropical storm, and only small changes were made to the track forecast. Jerry should continue northwestward today, and then turn northward on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge. By late Monday or Tuesday, Jerry should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate in that direction ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, likely passing near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The track guidance is still tightly clustered, especially for the first 72 h of the forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus throughout the 5-day period.
Because Jerry is not well organized at the moment, no strengthening is expected in the short term. The NHC forecast now calls for little change in Jerry's intensity for the next couple days, and I can't rule out that additional weakening could occur later today or tomorrow. Most of the guidance suggests that restrengthening could then occur once Jerry turns northeastward ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough, perhaps in part due to baroclinic forcing. Jerry is still forecast to become a hurricane again before the end of the forecast period, but the NHC forecast is now on the high side of the guidance, a little above the consensus.
An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane has investigated Jerry this morning and found that the tropical storm has become quite disorganized. The highest flight level winds reported by the plane at the 700 mb level were 59 kt, which supports holding the intensity at 55 kt. The highest reliable SFMR winds were lower and the minimum pressure estimated from the plane data was 999 mb, so its possible that Jerry's winds are actually a little lower.
Jerry is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of 315/12 kt. The track guidance is still in very good agreement on the forecast track for the tropical storm, and only small changes were made to the track forecast. Jerry should continue northwestward today, and then turn northward on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge. By late Monday or Tuesday, Jerry should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate in that direction ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, likely passing near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The track guidance is still tightly clustered, especially for the first 72 h of the forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus throughout the 5-day period.
Because Jerry is not well organized at the moment, no strengthening is expected in the short term. The NHC forecast now calls for little change in Jerry's intensity for the next couple days, and I can't rule out that additional weakening could occur later today or tomorrow. Most of the guidance suggests that restrengthening could then occur once Jerry turns northeastward ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough, perhaps in part due to baroclinic forcing. Jerry is still forecast to become a hurricane again before the end of the forecast period, but the NHC forecast is now on the high side of the guidance, a little above the consensus.
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