1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on the island but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Jerry is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and then gradually accelerate northeastward early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast for the next several days, but short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft which is currently flying a research mission around Jerry.

Jerry has become quite disorganized this afternoon. The low-level center is exposed to the northwest of a small area of persistent deep convection. The NOAA G-IV aircraft, which is flying a research mission in and around the tropical storm, measured a minimum pressure of 1004 mb with 17 kt of wind, implying that the minimum pressure of Jerry has increased since this morning. However, ASCAT data from a couple hours after an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane completed its mission into Jerry showed that the maximum winds were still 50-55 kt. The max winds are therefore conservatively held at 55 kt for this advisory.

Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast, and users should not focus on the 5 kt difference between a tropical storm and hurricane, especially at 72 h and beyond. Based on Jerry's disheveled appearance, significant strengthening does not seem imminent. That said, the HWRF and HMON forecast that the cyclone will quickly restrengthen tonight or tomorrow and become a hurricane again. If the shear decreases during the next 24 hours, that is possible, however SHIPS diagnostics suggest that will not happen. The NHC forecast instead follows the statistical guidance, and keeps Jerry in a more-or-less steady state through day 5. The cyclone is still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda next week, and there is still a distinct possibility that Jerry will re-gain hurricane strength at some point during the next 5 days.

All of the models still show Jerry turning northward later today or on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge, and then turning northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This track will bring Jerry close to Bermuda by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The model spread has increased a little since the last advisory, but confidence in this scenario is still high. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted only slightly to the west and remains near the multi-model consensus through day 5.

Jerry's center is still exposed to the northwest of the bulk of the deep convection, although a new burst of thunderstorms is just now developing just to the southeast of the center. With no significant change to the storm's structure, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt, which matches a blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS is depicting 15-20 kt of westerly shear over Jerry at the moment, although the analysis suggests that the cyclone could sneak into a slightly lower-shear environment during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, however, Jerry is expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level trough, putting the system under counterbalancing influences of strong shear but stronger divergence aloft. Because of these conditions, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 4 days or so. Jerry will be bumping up against a baroclinic zone while interacting with the trough, and it's likely that extratropical transition will at least commence while this system is over the western Atlantic. At this point, however, that transition is not expected to be complete before the end of the 5-day forecast period.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 325/13 kt. Jerry is still expected to continue recurving around the subtropical ridge, interact with the western Atlantic trough in about 48 hours, and then become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies from day 3 onward. Except for a slight westward kink in the track between 48-72, resulting from Jerry's expected interaction with the trough, little change in the NHC track forecast was required from the previous one.