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Tropical Storm Jerry
LOCATED
470 MI SSW OF BERMUDA
WINDS
65 MPH
PRESSURE
997 MB
MOVING
NNW AT 10 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 , 2019
JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 66.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 66.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

Jerry is not well organized on satellite images, with a ragged-looking CDO and limited banding features over the eastern semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a slight fall in central pressure but the maximum winds remain near 55 kt. The storm is under the influence of westerly shear, and the numerical guidance does not indicated that this shear will relax during the forecast period. Therefore, only slight strengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. This is a little above most of the model guidance.

Jerry continues to move north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt, through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days should cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward to northeastward with some acceleration later in the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and is also similar to the corrected consensus model guidance.

Jerry is not well organized on satellite images, with a ragged-looking CDO and limited banding features over the eastern semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a slight fall in central pressure but the maximum winds remain near 55 kt. The storm is under the influence of westerly shear, and the numerical guidance does not indicated that this shear will relax during the forecast period. Therefore, only slight strengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. This is a little above most of the model guidance.

Jerry continues to move north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt, through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days should cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward to northeastward with some acceleration later in the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and is also similar to the corrected consensus model guidance.

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