1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday night and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued tonight for Bermuda.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday, and toward the northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

Jerry continues to struggle to become better organized in an environment of moderate westerly vertical shear. The low-level center is near the western side of the main area of deep convection, and the overall cloud pattern remains rather ragged-looking. Flight-level, SFMR-observed, and Doppler wind data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the intensity remains near 55 kt. The dynamical guidance shows that the shear will remain rather strong throughout much of the forecast period, so the official forecast shows little change in strength for the next couple of days followed by gradual weakening. This is a little above the intensity model consensus.

The motion is still north-northwestward or 345/8 kt. Jerry continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In a couple of days, a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast should cause the storm to turn north-northeastward to northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed in the latter part of the forecast period, Jerry is likely to move east-northeastward at a faster speed, following the mid-level westerly flow. The official forecast is a bit slower than the previous one and leans toward the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA.