1. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda. Tropical- storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late Tuesday.

2. Large swells are expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue on Monday. A turn to the north is expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

Jerry has been relatively steady state this evening. Microwave data indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated the storm a few hours ago, and a combination of the flight-level wind and dropsonde data suggest that the initial intensity is still 55 kt. The minimum pressure measured by the aircraft has also been steady at 993 mb. The initial wind radii have been modified slightly based on the aircraft data and a recent ASCAT pass.

The tropical storm is currently located in a region of strong westerly wind shear to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough. The shear is expected to remain relatively strong during the next several days, which in combination with drier air and decreasing SSTs along the forecast track should cause gradual weakening during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one to become in better agreement with the latest HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt, and that general motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the northeast and then the east is predicted after that when the trough reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. There remains a fair amount of spread in the model tracks, especially from days 3 to 5. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the right of the previous one, leaning toward the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.