1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information.

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion should continue tonight. A turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

The low-level center of Jerry became fully exposed to the west of the convection earlier today. Later, however, new convection formed near or just north of the center. The storm continues to be affected by strong westerly shear associated with a sharp upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. The current intensity estimate remains 55 kt, which is consistent with data from an earlier ASCAT overpass. The dynamical guidance shows only a brief relaxation of the shear over the next several days, and the ambient air mass becomes quite dry in 3 to 5 days. Therefore, slow but steady weakening is forecast. This is close to the latest simple and corrected intensity model consensus predictions.

Jerry has slowed its forward speed today and the motion is now just 5 kt toward the north-northwest. The tropical cyclone should continue to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge tonight, and then turn toward the north and northeast under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast. In 2 to 4 days, Jerry is expected to move just north of east while embedded in nearly zonal flow. By the end of the forecast period, some of the models now show a slightly south of east motion as the cyclone moves along the northeast periphery of a subtropical anticyclone. The official track forecast is slower than the previous one, especially during the latter part of the period. This is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA.

Surface and flight-level data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Jerry this evening indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds are holding steady at 55 kt. The measured minimum central pressure of 991 mb is also unchanged. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 55 kt.

Jerry is currently moving within a rather harsh environment produced by a high amplitude mid- to upper-level trough situated between the cyclone and the eastern seaboard of the United States. The statistical-dynamical Decay SHIPS from both the GFS and ECMWF show the moderate westerly shear and the inhibiting thermodynamic environment persisting through the entire forecast. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA HFIP HCCA intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/6 kt. Jerry will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical ridge during the next 12 hours or so, and then turn northeastward within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by the aforementioned trough. Around mid-period, Jerry should move east-northeastward within the deep-layer mid-latitude zonal flow, then a little to the south of east in the peripheral flow of the subtropical high anchored to the southwest of the cyclone. The official forecast is a little to the south of the previous one beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN simple consensus and the GFS and ECMWF global models.