1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east- northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

Conventional satellite imagery and a series of recent microwave images show that Jerry's cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate. Diminishing deep convection is now confined to the north portion of the cyclone. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS respectively, support decreasing the initial intensity to 50 kt.

Strong vertical shear and an intruding dry, stable thermodynamic atmosphere associated with a high amplitude mid- to upper-level trough moving off of the east coast of the U.S. is finally taking its toll on Jerry. Weakening has begun, and the statistical- dynamical intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale deterministic models show the aforementioned inhibiting environment persisting through the entire 5 day period. Consequently, further weakening is expected, and Jerry should degenerate into a remnant low in 4 days, with dissipation occuring over the weekend, and this scenario is consistent with global model forecasts.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. Jerry will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical ridge through most of today, then turn northeastward later tonight within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by the previously mentioned approaching trough. Around mid-period, Jerry should move east-northeastward within the deep-layer mid-latitude zonal flow, then a little to the south of east in the peripheral flow of the subtropical high anchored to the southwest of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is somewhat slower beyond the 24 hour period than the previous advisory to align more with the reliable TVCA multi-model consensus.

Wind radii were adjusted based on 0150 UTC MetOp scatterometer data, and the forecast wind radii for the 24 and 36 hour periods are based on the global and regional model RVCN consensus.