1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by tonight or early Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

Jerry's interaction with an upper-level trough has resulted in a system that is less tropical in appearance, with a lack of central convection and most of the heavier showers displaced to the west and well southeast of the center. In fact, the cyclone looks somewhat subtropical at this time. For simplicity, however, we will continue to carry Jerry as a tropical storm. Flight-level winds from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane still support an intensity of 50 kt. Jerry will be encountering an increasingly unfavorable environment during the next few days, with the ambient air mass becoming drier and vertical shear becoming stronger. The official intensity forecast calls for continued weakening and degeneration to a remnant low later in the forecast period. This is similar to the consensus of the model guidance.

Based on fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, the center has moved a little to the left of previous estimates, and the initial motion estimate is 350/6 kt. There are no significant changes to the track forecast philosophy, however. Over the next couple of days Jerry should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward in the flow to the south of a broad mid-latitude trough. Later in the period, the weakening cyclone should move eastward to east-southeastward on the northeast side of a subtropical anticyclone. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and in general agreement with the corrected multi-model consensus guidance.