1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by early Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 69.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

Jerry no longer looks like either a tropical or a subtropical cyclone, since it lacks deep convection within a couple of hundred miles of the center. This is likely due to a combination of strong shear and drier air. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on SFMR-observed surface winds from earlier Hurricane Hunter observations. Another Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate Jerry in a few hours, and given the lack of convection, will likely find a weaker cyclone. The numerical guidance indicates that strong shear and increasingly drier air will affect Jerry over the next few days. Therefore, additional weakening is likely, and the system will probably become a remnant low in 72 hours or less, and completely dissipate by the end of the period. This is also shown by the global models.

Jerry has moved quite slowly today, and the estimated initial motion is just east of northward, or 010/5 kt. Jerry should pass through a weakness in the subtropical ridge tonight. A broad mid-latitude trough to the north of the cyclone should soon cause the system to turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. Later in the period, the cyclone should turn south of east while moving around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is close to the previous one, and leans toward the corrected consensus model guidance.