1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda beginning on Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected overnight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches)

Dry air and shear have continued to take a toll on Jerry, and the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that has been in the storm this evening measured peak flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR winds of 34 to 36 kt. The aircraft has not sampled the entire circulation yet, so the initial intensity has been lowered, perhaps conservatively, to 40 kt. Increasing shear and dry air that is being entrained into the circulation from the west are likely to continue to contribute to Jerry's gradual spin down over the next couple of days. If deep convection does not return overnight, Jerry could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as tomorrow morning. Regardless of the status of the system, it still has the potential to bring tropical-storm-force winds to Bermuda and advisories would continue as long as the Tropical Storm Warning is needed for that island. The global models completely dissipate Jerry in a little more than 3 days, and so does the new NHC forecast.

Jerry has turned northeastward but continues to move very slowly, or 025/4 kt. The cyclone should pick up its pace tonight and Wednesday as a broad trough passes to the north and the system gets caught within the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. As Jerry get increasingly weaker it is forecast to again slow down and turn southeastward before dissipation occurs. The official track forecast is not very different than the previous advisory, and is closest to the TCVN multi-model consensus.