1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to determine the direct impacts to the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be issued for a portion of this area this afternoon or evening.

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be issued this afternoon or evening.

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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane by late Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center. While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived ASCAT-C scatterometer pass.

Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear. While this type of environment could support even more strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification rates for now. This forecast leans heavier on the regional hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models. Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and the shear could become somewhat strong by next week. While little change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the environmental factors become more clear.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a faster forward speed for the next couple of days. Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.

Jerry continues to strengthen this afternoon, as indicated by 1-min GOES-16 satellite imagery, with a large burst of convection close to the center. In addition, microwave data show that the central structure has improved, displaying a tightly wrapped band near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the conservative side of the intensity estimates.

The storm should become a hurricane on Thursday while it is moving over very warm waters with light shear. Dropsondes from the NOAA G-IV aircraft this afternoon show that Jerry is surrounded by some very dry air in the lower to mid-levels, and this is likely the main limiting factor on the cyclone's strengthening rate in the near term. By 48 hours, almost all of the models show an increase in northwesterly shear due to flow from an upper-level ridge, which seems likely to cause some weakening. At long range, Jerry is likely to interact with a mid-latitude trough, which is notoriously difficult to forecast. Only small changes were made to the previous wind speed prediction, and this advisory is close to a blend of the various consensus aids.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. There's no substantial change to the track forecast on this package, with a subtropical ridge providing a well-defined steering current. This ridge should move Jerry along at a faster forward speed in about the same direction for the next couple of days, taking the center close to but north of the northern Leeward Islands. Afterward, a northwest to northward turn, influenced by a weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto and a new mid-latitude shortwave, is anticipated. The new forecast is very close to the previous one and a blend of the latest ECMWF ensemble mean and the corrected-consensus HCCA.