1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Barbuda
- Anguilla
- St. Maarten
- St. Martin
- St. Barthelemy
- Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry.

Additional watches could be issued on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands by late Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

Jerry is gradually becoming better organized, with a small circular CDO and some banding features over its northwestern quadrant. Although the storm has some modest upper-level outflow, there is evidence of west-northwesterly winds undercutting the system just below the outflow layer. An upper-level cyclone is located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Jerry, as confirmed by synoptic surveillance observations taken recently by the NOAA G-IV jet. However, the global models suggest that this feature should remain far enough to the north of the tropical cyclone so that its shearing influence will be minimal in the short term. The current intensity estimate is 55 kt based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Since the environment is likely to be modestly conducive during the next day or so, strengthening is predicted for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows some increase in shear, which should result in a leveling off of Jerry's intensity. Later in the forecast period, the global models predict a significant increase in shear, so some weakening is likely. The official intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus.

The storm remains on track with the motion continuing around 290/13 kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory. Jerry should move along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. In 3-5 days, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northwest, north-northwest, and eventually north following a weakness in the ridge near 70-75W longitude. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance.