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At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 49.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected later tonight, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Sunday. Little change in strength is expected thereafter through early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

The center of the tropical depression remained exposed for much of the evening, though in the past hour or so the center has become located closer to a small, ragged area of convection. A more pronounced curved band can also be seen east of the depression though this feature is located over 120 n mi away. This structure is due to ongoing west-southwesterly shear and the presence of some dry air that continues to plague the cyclone. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and wind data from a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

Some slight strengthening is possible later tonight through Sunday morning as a slight decrease in shear combined with the diurnal convective maximum may allow the depression to become a tropical storm. Thereafter through 60 h, the shear is forecast to increase, while the system moves into an drier environment. Thus, no further strengthening is forecast during this period, and the cyclone could weaken back into a tropical depression. By around 72 h, global models are suggesting that the shear will decrease again. So, some gradual strengthening is forecast after that time. It should also be noted that the GFS, which earlier forecast the system to degenerate into a remnant low in a few days, now keeps the cyclone in tact and deepens it when the shear lessens toward the end of the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one through 24 h, but is higher beyond 24 h. This forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and IVCN guidance through 72 h, but is lower than those solutions after that time.

The depression is moving toward the north at 9 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, carved out by a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic. This trough and associated ridge weakness is forecast to remain in place for the next few days, resulting in the cyclone continuing a general northward motion. By late in the forecast period, the trough is expected to lift out of the region and be replaced by a ridge, which would result in the system turning northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the various multi-model consensus tracks.

Tropical Depression Ten continues to struggle against 25-30 kt of northwesterly vertical wind shear, as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS guidance. Convection has thus remained displaced primarily to the southeast, though with some recent cells trying to develop closer to the center. The most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates were T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt with the objective ADT estimate at T2.3/33 kt. Given the disorganized nature of the current structure on IR satellite, I have elected to stay on the conservative side of these estimates and hold the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression continues to move toward the north at 360/9 kt. A large weakness in the mid-level ridging, due to a strong upper-tropospheric trough, will allow the depression to continue moving northward in the short-term, though there may be some occasional eastward bends as downshear convection tugs at the low-level vortex of the system. However by 72 h, some mid-level ridging is expected to build back in, allowing the track to shift a bit more leftward to the north-northwest after this point. The track guidance has not shifted much over the forecast period, and the latest NHC track forecast is nearly on top of the previous one, continuing to favor a blend of the the consensus aids (HCCA, TVCN).

The poor current structure of the depression, under high shear importing dry air, argues against much short term intensification. However, the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance still suggests a brief respite in the shear between 12-24 hours. For this reason, the NHC intensity forecast still shows some slight strengthening to a tropical storm in 24 hours. Another round of 25-30 kt of vertical wind shear between 24-48 hours is then expected to keep the system in check, and it remains possible that the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low over this time period. However, by 72 hours, the upper-level trough shearing the system is forecast to cut-off to the southwest, and this will shift the upper-level flow from northwesterly to southeasterly, which should provide a more favorable environment for strengthening. Thus, gradual strengthening is shown beginning in 72 hours extending through the end of the forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous forecast, favoring the more pessimistic ECMWF guidance versus the more aggressive GFS and regional hurricane models. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the latter portion of this forecast since it is unclear how much of the cyclone will survive the current unfavorable environment during the next 2-3 days.