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None.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 50.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the north or north northeast at a slower forward speed is expected through Wednesday, keeping the depression over the central Atlantic during the upcoming week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, but the depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

The center of the depression has become a little more exposed to the northwest of the deep convection during the past few hours as a result of continued 25-30 kt of northwesterly shear. The latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5 from TAFB and T1.0/2.0 from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The system is expected to continue moving through a region of strong northwesterly to westerly shear for the next 2 days or so, and little to no strengthening is anticipated during that time. However, if the convection is able to remain fairly close to the center, then the system could eke into tropical storm status at any time. After 48 hours, a significant decrease in shear, along with warm waters of 27-28 degrees Celsius, should allow for a steady strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward on days 3 through 5, although much of the guidance is even higher, suggesting that further adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories.

The depression is moving northward (350/10 kt) through a break in the ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending south of Newfoundland over the central Atlantic. This trough, along with a strengthening mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic on days 3-5, are expected to keep the cyclone on a curvy northward track during the entire forecast period. There is high confidence in the track forecast given low spread among the track models, and the NHC official forecast generally lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.

The depression's center has again scooted northwestward away from the associated deep convection due to continuing 20-25 kt of northwesterly shear. Since there has been no appreciable change to the various intensity estimates from this morning, the estimated maximum winds remain 30 kt for this advisory. The source of the shear can be seen in water vapor imagery, with high-level clouds emanating from the eastern Caribbean Sea and blowing directly into the depression. In fact, model guidance is now indicating that the shear may increase as high as 35-40 kt during the next 24 hours while the depression moves beneath the subtropical jet stream, and the NHC intensity forecast therefore now shows no intensity change through 36 hours. By 48 hours, the system should have moved north of the subtropical jet, and lower shear and relatively warm waters should finally allow for some strengthening. During the latter part of the forecast period, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Much of this forecast is contingent on the depression actually surviving the next 24-36 hours, however.

The depression is moving just west of due north (355/10 kt), but the system is expected to slow down and turn slightly toward the north-northeast within 24 hours, ahead of the tail end of a deep-layer trough which extends over much of the central Atlantic. Beginning in about 48 hours, a piece of the east Atlantic subtropical ridge is forecast to pinch off and block the depression, causing it to turn back to the north and north-northwest through the end of the 5-day forecast period. This developing high looks like it will be a little stronger than previously thought, and most of the models have shifted significantly westward after 48 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted westward as well, but it is not as far west as the deterministic models and the consensus aids. Therefore, additional adjustment may be required in subsequent advisories.