1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and Galveston areas.

WHAT'S NEW:

None

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sargent to Port Bolivar

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the Houston and Galveston areas. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area this afternoon and evening.

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 95.3 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north- northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Imelda will continue to move farther inland across eastern Texas tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Imelda is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as it moves farther inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) mainly to the southeast of the center over water. A wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) was recently reported in Galveston, Texas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Shortly after the earlier NHC Special Advisory, the cyclone quickly intensified just before it made landfall near Freeport, Texas around 1800 UTC. A National Ocean Service observing site near Freeport, Texas, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to 41 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1005.6 mb. A Weatherflow station at Surfside Beach also measured sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to 44 kt. The advisory intensity is set at 35 kt based on recent Doppler velocities within some of the rain bands that are still offshore.

Imelda joins a list of several systems in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico that formed and intensified very near the Texas coast. Other recent examples include Allison in 2001 and Humberto in 2007. Thankfully, in this case Imelda made landfall before significant strengthening could occur. Now that the center is moving inland, gradual weakening is expected. It cannot be stressed enough, however, that the primary threat from Imelda remains very heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding that will spread northward into eastern Texas and portions of western Louisiana during the next day or so.

Imelda is moving northward at about 6 kt. The cyclone should continue to move slowly northward to north-northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward but remains near the center of the tightly clustered track guidance.