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None.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 42.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A motion toward the westnorthwest at a similar forward speed is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

After an earlier burst of deep convection near the center and in the western semicircle of the circulation, overall thunderstorm activity has decreased somewhat. This is likely due to the entrainment of mid-/upper-level dry air as noted in GOES-16 high-resolution mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery, in conjunction with some modest southeasterly vertical wind shear. The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB/SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT of 30 kt and 33 kt, respectively, support maintaining an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression continues moving a little north of due west, or 280/13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through tonight due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. By 24 h, all of the global models are in decent agreement that a slight weakness will develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn more toward the west-northwest and then continue that motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so no significant track changes were made. The aforementioned unfavorable conditions of dry air entrainment and southeasterly shear are expected to give way to more conducive environmental conditions by 24 h when the cyclone will begin to move underneath the center of a synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone. This will result in the shear decreasing to near zero, along with a pronounced improvement in the upper-level outflow pattern. The much lower shear conditions should also reduce the amount of dry air entrainment, while allowing for some moistening of the surrounding environment to occur. These more favorable conditions are expected to persist through at least the 60-h period, and thus slow but steady strengthening is forecast during that time. By 72 h and beyond, the global models and regional models show the system moving out from underneath the positive influence of the upper-level anticyclone, encountering moderate southerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is expected to induce gradual weakening. It should be noted that during the 48-60 h period when the shear will be the lowest and sea-surface temperatures will be near 28.5C, there is a narrow window of opportunity where the intensity could peak higher than what is currently indicated. The new NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is slightly higher than the consensus intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA due to anticipation of the very favorable low-shear conditions.<

lite imagery indicates that the depression is a little better organized than 24 h ago, with a ragged central convective feature and a curved convective band in the northwestern semicircle. However, recent scatterometer data show this has not yet resulted in strengthening, with 25-30 kt winds occuring to the north of the center. Based on the scatterometer, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion remains a little north of due west, or 280/13 kt. There is little change to the forecast philosophy or the forecast track since the last advisory. A westward motion is expected to continue through tonight due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. After that, the global models forecast a slight weakness to develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, with that motion continuing through the end of the forecast period. The new NHC forecast is just to the left of the various consensus models. The southeasterly shear that has so far prevented intensification should diminish in the next 12 h or so, which should allow the cyclone to become a tropical storm. The system should then remain in light to moderate shear through about 48 h, and the intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 50 kt during that time. Later in the forecast period, moderate to strong southwesterly shear should develop over the cyclone due to an upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. This shear should cause the system to weaken, and several of the global models forecast it to degenerate to a tropical wave before 120 h. The new intensity forecast will not call for that quick of a demise, but will show weakening due to the shear after 72 h. The new forecast, which has only minor changes from the previous forecast, is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.