There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

None.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 45.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the westnorthwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows some changes in the convection associated with Tropical Depression Eleven, as the showers and thunderstorms are now occuring more in curved bands and less in sheared bursts. This is likely due to the southeasterly shear which has been affecting the depression finally letting up. However, this change has not caused the satellite intensity estimates to change significantly since the last advisory, so the initial intensity is again 30 kt.

The initial motion remains a little north of due west, or 280/13 kt. There is almost no change to the forecast philosophy and little change to the forecast track since the last advisory. A westward motion is expected to continue for another 6-12 h due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. After that, the global models forecast a slight weakness to develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and continue that motion through 96 h. Between 96-120 h, the western end of the ridge is forecast to weaken more, which should cause a turn toward the northwest. The new NHC forecast track remains just to the left of the various consensus models. The cyclone should be in an environment of light to moderate shear through the next 48 h or so. The intensity forecast again calls for a peak intensity of 50 kt during this time, which is at the high end of the intensity guidance. After 60 h, the cyclone is expected to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. This should cause at least steady weakening, and several of the global models continue to forecast the cyclone to degenerate to a tropical wave before 120 h. The new intensity forecast again expects the system to last longer than the global models, but still shows weakening due to the shear after 72 h. The new forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast.

Conventional satellite imagery and a fortuitous ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass indicate that the center of circulation is a little farther south than previously estimated and remains well to the southeast of the deep convective canopy. The latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis confirms modest east-southeasterly shear impinging on the cloud pattern. A compromise of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the aforementioned scatterometer pass retains the initial intensity at 30 kt.

Large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance still show the shear abating soon which should result in gradual strengthening with a peak intensity of 50 kt in 2 days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear associated with a deep-layer trough stretching over the southwestern Atlantic. This change in the upper wind pattern should induce steady weakening. A number of the global models indicate that the cyclone will become a remnant low by day 4 and open up into a trough by day 5 which is certainly possible. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory but indicates a more expeditious weakening trend beyond the 48 hour period in deference to the global model solution. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/13 kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric easterly flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the depression. The song remains the same...there is virtually no change to the forecast philosophy and only a slight shift to the left of the previous track forecast was made in response to the southward initial position adjustment.