There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

None.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Proxy-visible GOES-16 satellite imagery and data from an earlier scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center of the depression is displaced to the south of the main area of deep convection. Recently, however, some new convection is forming closer to the estimated center which suggests some re-organization of the system may be taking place. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are only 1.0, but the current intensity estimates from these agencies still support 30 kt. Since the shear is not expected to increase significantly for the next day or so, strengthening is still forecast in the short term. Beginning around 2-3 days, southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to weaken. The official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus.

The latest center fixes show that the cyclone is moving west-northwestward, or around 285/13 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast or reasoning from the previous advisory. The system should continue to move west-northwestward on the south side of the subtropical ridge into the weekend. By day 3 a turn toward the northwest is likely in response to weakness in the ridge followed by a turn toward the north-northwest as the cyclone moves through this weakness late in the period. The official track forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected model consensus, or HCCA, prediction and not much different from the previous official forec