There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

None.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 50.6 West. Josephine is moving toward the westnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Friday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

There has been little change in the organization of Josephine since the last advisory. The low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main convective mass, and there is some weak outer banding in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. Some arc clouds west of the main convective mass suggest that dry air is entraining into the system. However, where this dry air is coming from is not readily apparent in satellite imagery or model analyses.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/14 kt. Josephine should continue this motion for the next 3-4 days as it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of the ridge to weaken even more by the end of the forecast period, which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn northwestward. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of the previous track trough 48 h and close to the previous track thereafter. On the forecast track, Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has gone by. Josephine has about 36 h to strengthen before it encounters significant southwesterly shear. The new intensity forecast is unchanged in showing the storm strengthening to a peak intensity of 50 kt in 24-36 h. After that, some minor tweaks were made to the intensity during the expected shear-induced weakening. The new forecast intensity follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance.

Enhanced infrared GOES 16 imagery and a recent ASCAT-A overpass indicated that the center of circulation is still located to the south of a rather shapeless deep convective mass. Recent images show a small burst developing just to the west of the center, but the associated cloud tops are already warming. Based on the overall cloud pattern, light southerly shear and a dry, relatively stable surrounding environment continue to hamper significant development. There were no changes to the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is once again held at a possibly generous 40 kt.

Josephine's relatively small window of opportunity for further strengthening is within the next 18 to 24 hours. The forecast still shows a peak intensity of 50 kt at the time and is above all of the skilled guidance. After which, strong southwesterly shear produced by a northeast to southwest oriented deep-layer mid-Atlantic trough is expected to induce gradual weakening. This inhibiting upper wind pattern is forecast to affect the cyclone through day 5. The NHC forecast through 60 hours is based on the better performing IVCN consensus which consists of the Decay SHIPS, LGEM and the hurricane models. Beyond mid-period, the forecast is basically a blend of the IVCN and the global models which now shows Josephine degenerating into a remnant low at day 5.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt within the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high situated to the northeast of Josephine. Weakening of the western portion of the ridge should cause Josephine to turn northwestward in 3 days, followed by a turn generally northward at day 4 in response to a major shortwave trough approaching the east coast of the U.S. and the western Atlantic. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one through 5 days and is once again close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus model.

Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area.