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Tropical Storm Julian
LOCATED
815 MI SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
WINDS
60 MPH
PRESSURE
995 MB
MOVING
NE AT 24 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021
Julian strengthens a little more.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julian was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 44.6 West. Julian is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the north, then northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight. Julian is expected to become post tropical by Monday evening. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julian was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 44.6 West. Julian is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the north, then northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight. Julian is expected to become post tropical by Monday evening. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

The convective pattern and structure of Julian has remained consistent throughout today, with the low-level center remaining tucked under the southwestern edge of a deep convective mass and good outflow in the northeastern semicircle. A late morning ASCAT-C overpass sampled peak winds of 45 to 47 kt, and since the cyclone has likely intensified slightly since that time, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt.

Julian is now moving quickly to the northeast, or 050/21 kt in southwesterly flow to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure located just east of Newfoundland. The storm is forecast to continue to move northeastward at a similar forward speed through Monday, and then begin to turn northward then northwestward Monday night through Tuesday as the cyclone moves around the periphery of the larger low. The model track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one.

A cold front associated with the low east of Newfoundland has already begun to interact with the circulation of Julian, as noted by dry air being pulled into the southern portion of the circulation, and linear banding developing to the south of the cyclone. Baroclinic forcing could allow for some slight additional strengthening through tonight. However, Julian should cross the 26 C isotherm this evening, and reach waters of 22 C by 24 h while interacting with the cold front and associated mid- to upper level trough to its north. These factors should cause the cyclone to go through extratropical transition tonight through tomorrow morning, with the transition complete by late tomorrow. The latest SHIPS guidance as well as the FSU phase-space diagrams depict this transition scenario. Once extratropical, the system should dissipate within a couple of days over the north Atlantic. The latest NHC intensity forecast was essentially an update of the previous one, and is close to the HCCA and IVCN solutions.

The convective pattern and structure of Julian has remained consistent throughout today, with the low-level center remaining tucked under the southwestern edge of a deep convective mass and good outflow in the northeastern semicircle. A late morning ASCAT-C overpass sampled peak winds of 45 to 47 kt, and since the cyclone has likely intensified slightly since that time, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt.

Julian is now moving quickly to the northeast, or 050/21 kt in southwesterly flow to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure located just east of Newfoundland. The storm is forecast to continue to move northeastward at a similar forward speed through Monday, and then begin to turn northward then northwestward Monday night through Tuesday as the cyclone moves around the periphery of the larger low. The model track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one.

A cold front associated with the low east of Newfoundland has already begun to interact with the circulation of Julian, as noted by dry air being pulled into the southern portion of the circulation, and linear banding developing to the south of the cyclone. Baroclinic forcing could allow for some slight additional strengthening through tonight. However, Julian should cross the 26 C isotherm this evening, and reach waters of 22 C by 24 h while interacting with the cold front and associated mid- to upper level trough to its north. These factors should cause the cyclone to go through extratropical transition tonight through tomorrow morning, with the transition complete by late tomorrow. The latest SHIPS guidance as well as the FSU phase-space diagrams depict this transition scenario. Once extratropical, the system should dissipate within a couple of days over the north Atlantic. The latest NHC intensity forecast was essentially an update of the previous one, and is close to the HCCA and IVCN solutions.

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