1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

WHAT'S NEW:

None

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
- British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late tonight. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 65.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected late tonight or early Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening, and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late tonight or Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Karen has become increasingly disorganized today. Visible satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that there is a broad low-level circulation, but the aircraft struggled to find a well-defined center. Based on the current lack of organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. The environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain quite hostile, with dry mid-level air and strong northeasterly shear continuing overnight. After Karen moves north of Puerto Rico over the western Atlantic, it may find itself in a more favorable upper-level environment, but given the current structure of the cyclone it should take some time for any potential re-strengthening to occur. As a result, the long-range intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory and remains of very low confidence.

Karen is moving northwestward or 335/11 kt. Karen should turn northward later tonight or early Tuesday toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Jerry. A northward to north-northeast motion should then take the storm over the western Atlantic well to the east of the Bahamas around mid- week. After that time, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and far western Atlantic, which should cause Karen to slow down and become nearly stationary at days 4 and 5. The track guidance has trended toward Karen gaining more latitude before slowing, and the new NHC track forecast as been adjusted accordingly. The latter portion of the track forecast is still quite uncertain as the dynamical model guidance and their ensembles still exhibit large spread.

Although Karen in shown to remain a tropical depression as it passed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the tropical storm warning is begin maintained since only a small increase in the wind speed would make Karen a tropical storm again. In addition, windward facing areas at high elevation on the islands could experience winds higher than those shown in the official forecast.