1. Karen will continue to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands into Wednesday even as the center moves away from the region.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
- British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease on Wednesday.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was estimated near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 65.0 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen should continue to move toward the north-northeast through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours, but the strong squalls which are to the south of the center will continue to affect that area through tonight. Karen should move over the western Atlantic later tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure was 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

During the afternoon and early evening hours, satellite images indicated that the cloud pattern associated with Karen was becoming a little better organized. Then, surface observations from the area just east of Puerto Rico indicated that the pressures were falling, and a center was apparently becoming better defined. The presence of this center was confirmed by a reconnaissance plane which was able to fix a tight small circulation of about 1002 or 1003 mb. This, by no means, indicates that the overall circulation of the cyclone is well organized. Winds are still swirly on the western portion of the circulation and are responding to an elongated trough of low pressure north of Puerto Rico. In fact, I would not be surprised if another center reforms father to west within the trough or the large cyclonic envelope, and the center we are tracking dissipates. In any case, preliminary analysis indicates that the center of Karen that we were tracking moved very near or over Vieques around 2100 UTC and then over Culebra a little bit later. This small center could also have been a meso-vortex within the larger circulation.

Data from the reconnaissance plane and satellite intensity estimates yield an initial intensity of 40 kt. These winds are occurring primarily to the southeast of the center. Karen is heading toward a shear environment that is not ideal at all for significant intensification. As previously indicated, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest increase in intensity during the next 3 to 5 days as indicated by the HCCA model. However, some of the statistical guidance brings Karen to hurricane status by the end of the forecast period.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Karen is moving toward the north-northeast or 015 degrees at 12 kt. This motion however, is highly uncertain because it includes the reformation of the center. The circulation of Karen is trapped between a subtropical high over the Atlantic and a mid-level trough over the Bahamas. This flow pattern will continue to steer Karen in this same generaldirection for the next 3 days. After that time, the steering flow is forecast to collapse, and Karen, if it is still a cyclone, will begin to meander. This would allow another ridge to develop north of the cyclone and force it to move westward. This is the solution provided by most of the global models.