1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern Windward Islands through tonight.

2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm warning is in effect. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding are possible on these islands.

WHAT'S NEW:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 8 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 63.9 West. Karen is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48 hours due to strong upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Karen's convective pattern has become quite disheveled looking this morning due to 20-25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. a narrow band of deep convection has recently reformed in the southeastern quadrant, but proximity to dry air has been hindering development and organization of that convection. The initial intensity has been held at 35 kt until the next reconnaissance flight later this morning provides new information on the strength of the cyclone. However, I would not be surprised if Karen has weakened to a tropical depression based on the lack of significant convection.

The initial motion is now 320/07 kt. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement that Karen should continue a northwestward motion today toward a break in the subtropical ridge, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday that would take the center of the cyclone near or over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in about 36 hours. Karen is forecast to emerge over the southwestern Atlantic near 48 hours and then slow down significantly and possibly even stall or loop several hundred nmi north of Puerto Rico on days 4 and 5 as a large ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the average of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

The upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for the next 24 hours or so, and I would not be surprised if Karen weakens to a tropical depression during that time. By 36 hours and beyond, however, upper-level winds are expected to become much less hostile, allowing some modest strengthening to occur. By days 4 and 5, Karen is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should allow for more significant intensification to occur. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows the trend of the various intensity consensus models.