1. Regardless of Karen's status as a tropical cyclone, this system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

WHAT'S NEW:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
- British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by Tuesday morning.

Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 64.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation. It is possible that a center reformation will occur near the new convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical cyclone for now. The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of 30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still supports an initial intensity of 35 kt. Given the current structure of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already. Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall over those areas. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the intensity forecast is low.

The initial motion estimate is 335/10 kt. Despite the overall lack of organization of the system, the track guidance is still in good agreement on Karen turning northward tonight or early Tuesday into a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Tropical Storm Jerry to its north. After 72 hours, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and western Atlantic which should slow Karen's northward progress and could cause the system to essentially stall over the western Atlantic by the end of the period. The new NHC track forecast is again close to the previous advisory, and is near the consensus aids through 96 h. At 120 h, the NHC forecast is south of the consensus models in deference to the more equatorward position shown by the ECMWF, but the spread of the guidance by that time is quite large, and confidence in the track forecast at days 4 and 5 is quite low.