FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Larry
LOCATED
875 MI W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
85 MPH
PRESSURE
985 MB
MOVING
W AT 20 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021
Larry a little stronger.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 37.5 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday morning. A turn toward the west northwest is expected later on Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Larry could become a major hurricane by Friday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 37.5 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday morning. A turn toward the west northwest is expected later on Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Larry could become a major hurricane by Friday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

A series of SSMIS microwave passes earlier this afternoon indicated that Larry may have been starting an eyewall replacement. However, the last pass at 2058 UTC suggested that the eyewall replacement failed, with the western part of the outer eyewall being eroded, possibly by some modest mid-level shear and some dry air, and the tighter inner eyewall trying to re-establish itself. As a result, the convective pattern has reverted back to a small Central Dense Overcast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are now T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB, and the latest objective estimates range from 72 to 78 kt. Overall these numbers have risen a bit, and Larry's maximum winds are now estimated to be 75 kt.

Larry continues moving toward the west but perhaps slightly faster (280/17 kt). There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A fairly stagnant pattern consisting of a strong mid-level high over the central Atlantic and broad-scale troughing over the eastern United States and western Atlantic should persist through the 5-day forecast period. Larry is therefore forecast to turn toward the west-northwest on Friday and then take on a northwest heading Sunday through Tuesday while it moves around the southwestern periphery of the high. The updated NHC track forecast lies right along the previous forecast and is very close to the various consensus aids.

Low shear, gradually increasing sea surface temperatures, and the potential for an upper-level outflow jet to form north of the hurricane during the next 24-48 hours should support continued strengthening. During the first 48 hours, the NHC forecast shows a steady increase of 10 kt every 24 hours, close to the HCCA consensus aids and near the top of the guidance envelope. By days 3 and 4, there continue to be indications that increasing westerly or northwesterly shear could become a factor, and the NHC forecast therefore shows a leveling off of the intensity, with some slight weakening by the end of the forecast period. If Larry becomes a strong hurricane, eyewall replacements would also be a possibility, which would likely lead to difficult-to-forecast fluctuations in intensity.

The leading swell front from Larry is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents and surf conditions on those islands early next week. Large swells are likely to spread to areas surrounding the western Atlantic later in the week as well.

A series of SSMIS microwave passes earlier this afternoon indicated that Larry may have been starting an eyewall replacement. However, the last pass at 2058 UTC suggested that the eyewall replacement failed, with the western part of the outer eyewall being eroded, possibly by some modest mid-level shear and some dry air, and the tighter inner eyewall trying to re-establish itself. As a result, the convective pattern has reverted back to a small Central Dense Overcast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are now T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB, and the latest objective estimates range from 72 to 78 kt. Overall these numbers have risen a bit, and Larry's maximum winds are now estimated to be 75 kt.

Larry continues moving toward the west but perhaps slightly faster (280/17 kt). There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A fairly stagnant pattern consisting of a strong mid-level high over the central Atlantic and broad-scale troughing over the eastern United States and western Atlantic should persist through the 5-day forecast period. Larry is therefore forecast to turn toward the west-northwest on Friday and then take on a northwest heading Sunday through Tuesday while it moves around the southwestern periphery of the high. The updated NHC track forecast lies right along the previous forecast and is very close to the various consensus aids.

Low shear, gradually increasing sea surface temperatures, and the potential for an upper-level outflow jet to form north of the hurricane during the next 24-48 hours should support continued strengthening. During the first 48 hours, the NHC forecast shows a steady increase of 10 kt every 24 hours, close to the HCCA consensus aids and near the top of the guidance envelope. By days 3 and 4, there continue to be indications that increasing westerly or northwesterly shear could become a factor, and the NHC forecast therefore shows a leveling off of the intensity, with some slight weakening by the end of the forecast period. If Larry becomes a strong hurricane, eyewall replacements would also be a possibility, which would likely lead to difficult-to-forecast fluctuations in intensity.

The leading swell front from Larry is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents and surf conditions on those islands early next week. Large swells are likely to spread to areas surrounding the western Atlantic later in the week as well.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

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