FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Larry
LOCATED
1140 MI E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WINDS
115 MPH
PRESSURE
965 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 16 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021
Larry forecast to remain a major hurricane for several days.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 44.6 West. Larry is moving toward the west northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly slower west northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast over the next day or two, and Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength through the early part of next week. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 44.6 West. Larry is moving toward the west northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly slower west northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast over the next day or two, and Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength through the early part of next week. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

Larry's strengthening trend appears to have paused for the moment. The hurricane has generally changed little during the past several hours with the inner core still fairly symmetric, though cloud tops are coldest to the south of the ragged eye. The outer bands are also quite distinct, especially to the south of the center. The latest Dvorak estimates still range from 90 to 110 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 14 kt. Larry is expected to continue moving west-northwestward to northwestward during the next few days as it remains steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. By the middle of next week, a turn to the north-northwest is forecast when the hurricane reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies fairly close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Larry is expected to be moving across the central Atlantic during the next several days and approach Bermuda by the end of the forecast period.

Larry is expected to remain in generally favorable conditions for strengthening during the next couple of days, with SSTs increasing along the storm's track and vertical wind shear remaining fairly low. The models suggest that there could be an increase in shear early next week, and that combined with slightly drier and more stable air should end the strengthening trend and likely cause some weakening. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles are a possibility at some point during the forecast period, and these can cause intensity fluctuations that are difficult to predict. Regardless of the details, Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.

Significant ocean swells generated by Larry's growing wind field are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and then spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United States by midweek.

Larry's strengthening trend appears to have paused for the moment. The hurricane has generally changed little during the past several hours with the inner core still fairly symmetric, though cloud tops are coldest to the south of the ragged eye. The outer bands are also quite distinct, especially to the south of the center. The latest Dvorak estimates still range from 90 to 110 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 14 kt. Larry is expected to continue moving west-northwestward to northwestward during the next few days as it remains steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. By the middle of next week, a turn to the north-northwest is forecast when the hurricane reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies fairly close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Larry is expected to be moving across the central Atlantic during the next several days and approach Bermuda by the end of the forecast period.

Larry is expected to remain in generally favorable conditions for strengthening during the next couple of days, with SSTs increasing along the storm's track and vertical wind shear remaining fairly low. The models suggest that there could be an increase in shear early next week, and that combined with slightly drier and more stable air should end the strengthening trend and likely cause some weakening. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles are a possibility at some point during the forecast period, and these can cause intensity fluctuations that are difficult to predict. Regardless of the details, Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.

Significant ocean swells generated by Larry's growing wind field are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and then spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United States by midweek.

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