1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next couple of days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by Thursday. Tropical storm watches could be needed for the island later today, and interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Larry. A tropical storm watch could be required for the island today.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 55.1 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).

Larry has maintained a very warm, pronounced eye with a diameter of around 45 to 50 n mi overnight. However, recent infrared satellite imagery and earlier microwave data show some weaknesses in the western eyewall of the hurricane, potentially signaling the entrainment of some drier air into its inner core. This could be the result of some moderate westerly shear impinging on the system. The initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt for this advisory, based on a 0520 UTC SATCON estimate of 103 kt and T5.5/102 kt current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter reconnaissance flight is scheduled to investigate Larry later this morning, which should provide more insight into the hurricane's structure and intensity.

Larry is moving toward the northwest at 315/9 kt, as the hurricane is being steered around a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 h or so. By Thursday, the hurricane is forecast to turn northward within the flow between the ridge and an approaching deep-layer trough that will be crossing the northeastern United States. As the trough moves over the western Atlantic, Larry should accelerate northeastward deeper into the mid-latitudes on Friday and Saturday, passing near or over portions of Atlantic Canada. The latest NHC track forecast lies near the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and no significant adjustments were made from the previous forecast. Larry is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large hurricane. Given the expansive size of its wind field, a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for the island later today.

Although the warm sea-surface temperatures and diminishing vertical wind shear along Larry's forecast track appear favorable during the next couple of days, it may not be able to take advantage of these conditions due to its large size, as well as the potential for another eyewall replacement cycle. As previously noted, Larry's broad wind field and moderate forward speed could also result in some upwelling of cooler waters near its inner core. There remains a split in the intensity guidance, with the statistical-dynamical guidance notably higher than the coupled atmosphere-ocean models. The official NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening of Larry during the next several days. Nonetheless, Larry will remain a forceful hurricane that continues to produce significant swell with far-reaching impacts through the week. After 72 h, Larry should begin its extratropical transition, and the official forecast shows Larry becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone by 96 h.

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Larry is becoming better organized, with curved convective bands increasing around the center. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates were in the 35-55 kt range around 12Z, and ASCAT data near the time showed 40 kt winds. Based on increasing organization since that time, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt.

Larry is moving quickly westward, although there is some uncertainty in the forward speed due to the possibility the center re-formed during the night. The best estimate of the motion is 270/19 kt. As noted in the previous advisory, the cyclone is expected to move around the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general west motion for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and, by 96-120 h, a turn toward the northwest. After 36 h, there is some spread in the track guidance, with the GFS generally on the right side of the guidance envelope and the UKMET on the left side, a spread often seen for westward-moving cyclones south of the Bermuda-Azores high. Due to a more westerly initial position, the guidance has shifted a little more to the west, and the new forecast track is again shifted to the west of the previous track. The new forecast lies a little to the south of the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 48-60 h due to light shear, a moist environment, and sea surface temperatures of 27-28C along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast calls for Larry to become a hurricane in about 24 h and a major hurricane near 60 h. After that time, the global models suggest the possibility of dry air entrainment, and by 120 h there is likely to be moderate westerly shear over the cyclone. Based on this forecast environment and the guidance trends, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength from 72-120 h. The new intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.