FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Larry
LOCATED
750 MI SE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
115 MPH
PRESSURE
967 MB
MOVING
NW AT 9 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021
Large Larry expected to cause dangerous swells over the western Atlantic coast this week.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 55.8 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the northnorthwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 55.8 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the northnorthwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and found that the hurricane has weakened somewhat. The central pressure has risen to 967 mb, and the eyewall is becoming less well defined. Satellite imagery shows that the eye is still evident but the deep convection has has decreased in coverage and intensity. Using a blend of flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft gives a current intensity estimate of 100 kt, although this may be generous.

The hurricane continues to move northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Larry is forecast to move around the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone during the next couple of days. By 72 hours, the system should begin to accelerate northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric trough moving through the northeastern United States. Thereafter, Larry should be well-embedded in the higher-latitude southwesterly flow, pass near Newfoundland and move into the far North Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and in very close agreement with the latest NOAA corrected consensus and Florida State University (FSU) Superensemble tracks.

Larry is in a low-shear environment with fairly well-defined upper-level outflow. However dry mid-level air and possible upwelling of cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation appear to be at least partially responsible for weakening. Since the environment does not appear to be very hostile for the next couple of days, only slow weakening is anticipated. The official intensity forecast for the next 48-72 hours lies below the statistical dynamical Decay-SHIPS guidance and above the coupled- HWRF dynamical model prediction. By 96 hours, the FSU cyclone phase analysis indicates that Larry will have undergone an extratropical transition, and this is also shown in the official forecast.

Larry is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large hurricane. Given the expansive size of Larry's wind field and forecast uncertainties, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the island.

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and found that the hurricane has weakened somewhat. The central pressure has risen to 967 mb, and the eyewall is becoming less well defined. Satellite imagery shows that the eye is still evident but the deep convection has has decreased in coverage and intensity. Using a blend of flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft gives a current intensity estimate of 100 kt, although this may be generous.

The hurricane continues to move northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Larry is forecast to move around the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone during the next couple of days. By 72 hours, the system should begin to accelerate northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric trough moving through the northeastern United States. Thereafter, Larry should be well-embedded in the higher-latitude southwesterly flow, pass near Newfoundland and move into the far North Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and in very close agreement with the latest NOAA corrected consensus and Florida State University (FSU) Superensemble tracks.

Larry is in a low-shear environment with fairly well-defined upper-level outflow. However dry mid-level air and possible upwelling of cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation appear to be at least partially responsible for weakening. Since the environment does not appear to be very hostile for the next couple of days, only slow weakening is anticipated. The official intensity forecast for the next 48-72 hours lies below the statistical dynamical Decay-SHIPS guidance and above the coupled- HWRF dynamical model prediction. By 96 hours, the FSU cyclone phase analysis indicates that Larry will have undergone an extratropical transition, and this is also shown in the official forecast.

Larry is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large hurricane. Given the expansive size of Larry's wind field and forecast uncertainties, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the island.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram