1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas today. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of Larry and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 57.7 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the northnorthwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. A faster northeastward motion is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

Larry's overall satellite presentation has not changed appreciably overnight, however there has been some recent cooling of the cloud tops in the surrounding ring of convection. A fairly recent AMSR2 microwave overpass has revealed a fragmented inner eye with a band or ring of convection at a fairly large radius from the center. Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are T5.0 (90 kt) while objective UW/CIMSS ADT T-numbers are around T5.8 (110 kt). A consensus of these estimates, and the latest SATCON estimate of 100 kt, is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this morning and should provide in situ data to help better ascertain the intensity and structure of the hurricane.

Larry continues to move northwestward or 325/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning is once again unchanged from before. Larry is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western portion of a deep-layer ridge during the next 36 to 48 hours, with the center of the hurricane passing east of Bermuda on Thursday. After that time, Larry should begin to accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be moving across the northeastern United States, and this will bring the cyclone near or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 72 hours. The track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement, and only slight modifications were made to the previous official forecast. The updated NHC track is near the various consensus aids and the latest GFS ensemble mean.

The hurricane is forecast to remain within an area of low vertical wind shear for the next day or two, but the upper-ocean heat content will be gradually decreasing along the forecast path. This, along with some upwelling beneath the relatively slow-moving hurricane, is likely to result in gradual weakening over the next couple of days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and much colder SSTs along the forecast track should result in additional weakening. The global models indicate that Larry will merge with a frontal zone and complete its extratropical transition in a little more than 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is once again similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with the IVCN consensus aid.