FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Larry
LOCATED
185 MI NE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
90 MPH
PRESSURE
966 MB
MOVING
NNW AT 20 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021
Larry beginning to move away from Bermuda.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through this evening, along with a risk of coastal flooding.

1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through this evening, along with a risk of coastal flooding.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Warning from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour, Newfoundland. The Canadian Hurricane Centre has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove, and from north of Jones Harbour to Bonavista, Newfoundland. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda
- Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove
- Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Warning from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour, Newfoundland. The Canadian Hurricane Centre has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove, and from north of Jones Harbour to Bonavista, Newfoundland. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda
- Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove
- Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through today. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through today. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 62.2 West. Larry is moving toward the north northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a faster northeastward motion forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland by Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). Pearl Island, Bermuda, reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 62.2 West. Larry is moving toward the north northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a faster northeastward motion forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland by Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). Pearl Island, Bermuda, reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

A faint eye is still discernible on visible satellite images along with some banding features. On the Bermuda radar, the eyewall is partially open over the southern semicircle of the hurricane. Larry still has a prominent upper-tropospheric outflow pattern, especially over the northern portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity is held at 80 kt, just above the latest Dvorak Current Intensity Numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Larry is now heading a little west of north at an increasing forward speed, and the initial motion is 345/17 kt. The hurricane has been moving around the western side of a large deep-layer high pressure area centered over the central Atlantic. By Friday, the system should accelerate northeastward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough over the northeastern United States, and pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland within 36 hours. Thereafter, post-tropical cyclone Larry should move over the far North Atlantic. The official track forecast again lies close to the various consensus model predictions.

The hurricane is expected to remain over warm waters with weak vertical shear for another 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, Larry is forecast to move over the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream and the shear will increase. These factors should induce weakening, but possible baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west of the cyclone could result in Larry maintaining some strength over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the latest NOAA corrected-consensus guidance, HCCA. Global model predictions indicate that Larry will merge with a front, and therefore become an extratropical cyclone, in 48 hours. These models also show the system merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.

A faint eye is still discernible on visible satellite images along with some banding features. On the Bermuda radar, the eyewall is partially open over the southern semicircle of the hurricane. Larry still has a prominent upper-tropospheric outflow pattern, especially over the northern portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity is held at 80 kt, just above the latest Dvorak Current Intensity Numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Larry is now heading a little west of north at an increasing forward speed, and the initial motion is 345/17 kt. The hurricane has been moving around the western side of a large deep-layer high pressure area centered over the central Atlantic. By Friday, the system should accelerate northeastward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough over the northeastern United States, and pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland within 36 hours. Thereafter, post-tropical cyclone Larry should move over the far North Atlantic. The official track forecast again lies close to the various consensus model predictions.

The hurricane is expected to remain over warm waters with weak vertical shear for another 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, Larry is forecast to move over the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream and the shear will increase. These factors should induce weakening, but possible baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west of the cyclone could result in Larry maintaining some strength over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the latest NOAA corrected-consensus guidance, HCCA. Global model predictions indicate that Larry will merge with a front, and therefore become an extratropical cyclone, in 48 hours. These models also show the system merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.

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