1. Larry is forecast to move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has extended the Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of southeastern Newfoundland westward to Francois and along the northern coast of southeastern Newfoundland to Fogo Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
- Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland by late today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 61.8 West. Larry is moving toward the north northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A turn to the northeast with a further increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is now forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Greenland by the end of the weekend. Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

Larry's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged overnight. Deep convection continues to persist over and to the northeast of the center, with a larger outer band around the eastern portion of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have lowered slightly, and the initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 75 kt. This lies between the lower subjective satellite estimates and the higher UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON values. Larry is forecast to remain over warm waters and in low vertical wind shear conditions this morning, therefore little overall change in intensity is expected in the short term. The hurricane will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream over much cooler SSTs this afternoon, but the increasingly fast forward speed of the system and baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude trough approaching from the west is likely to help Larry maintain hurricane strength as is passes over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Larry is forecast to become extratropical shortly thereafter, and some slight weakening should occur before the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by a larger extratropical low near southern Greenland in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids and also follows the trends of the latest global model guidance.

Larry has turned north-northeastward or 015/23 kt. The track guidance is once again in excellent agreement that Larry should turn northeastward today and continue to accelerate ahead of the aforementioned trough. The center of Larry should pass over southeastern Newfoundland tonight, but users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will extend far from the center of the cyclone. The updated official forecast lies near the center of the track guidance envelope, but is slightly faster than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours.