1. This general motion should continue until Larry merges with the other low pressure area. The new official forecast track is little changed from the previous track and is in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance models. Key Messages1. Larry will move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland during the next several hours as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
- Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are now spreading across the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland, and tropical storm conditions are also spreading across other portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland.

SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 46.8 North, longitude 54.9 West. Larry is moving toward the north northeast near 47 mph (76 km/h). A very rapid motion toward the north northeast or northeast is expected through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will be moving across southeastern Newfoundland during the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall in Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry is expected to become a strong extratropical low by Saturday morning before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A station at Cape St. Mary's, Newfoundland, relayed by amateur radio, recently reported sustained winds of 84 mph (135 km/h) and a wind gust of 97 mph (156 km/h) at an unknown elevation. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).

Satellite imagery and data from Canadian radars indicate that Larry is maintaining good central convective banding in the northeastern semicircle, and based on this it is still a tropical cyclone at this time. The maximum intensity is held at 70 kt based mainly on recently-received scattterometer data showing 64-67 kt winds to the east and southeast of the center. Surface observations indicate that tropical storm conditions are spreading into southeastern Newfoundland, and hurricane condition should move onshore during the next few hours as the center makes landfall.

After landfall, Larry is expected to quickly lose its tropical cyclone characteristics and become a strong extratropical low over the Labrador Sea. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate after 24 h as it merges with a developing mid-latitude low currently to its northwest.

Larry is moving rapidly toward the north-northeast with an initial motion of 030/41. This general motion should continue until Larry merges with the other low pressure area. The new official forecast track is little changed from the previous track and is in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance models.